How many weddings will happen in India this wedding season (1 Nov – 14 Dec)?

The question

Estimate how many weddings will take place in India during this year’s wedding season, 1 November to 14 December. No internet, no calculator: just reasonable assumptions you can defend in an interview.

Try it yourself, step by step

Write a line or two for each step, the way you would say it in the interview. Stuck? Open the hint.

1. 1Clarify the question

   What exactly are we counting, where, and over what time?

   Your notes for: Clarify the question
   Hint

   You are counting weddings, not guests. Every wedding has two people in it, so whom will you count to avoid counting it twice?

2. 2Pick top-down or bottom-up

   Start from the big population and narrow down, or build up from small units.

   Top-downBottom-up
   Your notes for: Pick top-down or bottom-up
   Hint

   Going bottom-up from venues, priests or caterers is hard, because nobody has that data in an interview. Starting top-down from the population is easier.

3. 3Segment

   Split into groups that behave differently (age, gender, city, income…).

   Your notes for: Segment
   Hint

   The chance of getting married depends mostly on age. Split women into age brackets: 18–21, 22–25, 26–30.

4. 4Assume

   Put a round, defendable number on each group. Say it out loud.

   Your notes for: Assume
   Hint

   What percentage of women in each bracket will marry this year? 22–25 will be the peak.

5. 5Calculate

   Multiply and add. Keep the maths simple: crore and lakh, not decimals.

   Your notes for: Calculate
   Hint

   First work out the weddings in a full year, then think about what share falls between 1 Nov and 14 Dec.

6. 6Sanity-check

   Does the answer feel right? Compare with something you know.

   Your notes for: Sanity-check
   Hint

   About 2.5 crore babies are born in India every year. Does 1 crore weddings a year sound reasonable next to that?